Global Trade SURVIVING?! What Experts Aren't Telling You!

Commentary: There Are Good Reasons to Be Cheerful About Global Trade

Global Trade SURVIVING?! What Experts Aren't Telli...

Despite all the gloomy predictions, and believe me, there have been plenty, the Global Trade system is proving surprisingly resilient. Remember all the hand-wringing when Donald Trump launched his tariff campaign? Well, according to a recent analysis by Alan Beattie in the Financial Times, the system hasn't derailed – it's adapted. And that’s a good thing for everyone.

We're seeing patterns emerge that mirror Trump's first term. Sure, the bilateral tariffs against China have definitely squeezed goods trade between the two giants. Chinese imports into the US plummeted by a hefty 24% in the year leading up to September 2025. That's a big number. But here's the interesting bit: imports from Southeast Asia have jumped, and Europe is seeing a smaller, but still significant, increase. Even Canada and Mexico have held their own, surprisingly.

Trump vowed to shut down any attempts by China to dodge US tariffs by rerouting exports through other countries – he even threatened 40% tariffs to block this "transshipment." But it looks like all that bluster has mostly just shifted trade flows around. So, instead of stopping trade, it's just being diverted elsewhere. This suggests businesses are finding ways to navigate the complexities, even if it means a little extra logistical gymnastics.

And let's not forget about services. Trade in services is actually growing faster than goods, and so far, the political squabbles over US tech haven't had a huge impact on that. It's even possible that we've reached the peak of tariffs. Trump threatened to go head-to-head with China over the trade deficit and with the EU over Greenland. But both times, he backed down when faced with the possibility of retaliation and financial market jitters. Which tells you something about the limits of political power when facing economic realities.

Across Latin America, Africa, and Asia, emerging economies are dealing with their own challenges, especially related to Chinese imports. But overall, there's no sense of a major crisis gripping the trading world. Businesses are also starting to relax a bit. While everyone acknowledges that a major shock, like, say, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, would be disastrous for trade, companies aren't as worried about garden-variety protectionism as they used to be. They've seen tariffs, quotas, and local content rules before, and they know how to adapt.

Longer-term risks remain, of course. Things like mineral export controls, the tech supremacy battles, and the weaponization of payment systems are serious threats. But the initial takeaway from a year of Trump's trade policies is that the global trading system is proving more robust than many predicted. The US president has power, no question, but market forces are proving to be a powerful force in their own right.